Rocket Lab (RKLB) — The Only Company Besides SpaceX That Launches Orbital Rockets Reliably
SpaceX launches the most orbital rockets in the world. Rocket Lab launches the second most. No other company is close.$602M revenue in 2025. $1.85B backlog up 73% in one year. 21 launches with a 100% success rate. $816M satellite prime contract. $190M hypersonic test contract — the largest single launch deal in company history. Stock at $65, down 35% from its all-time high.The reason for the gap between the business and the stock is one rocket: Neutron. The medium-lift vehicle that would take Rocket Lab from small-satellite niche into SpaceX territory. It was supposed to fly in Q1 2026. A carbon fiber tank failed in January. Launch pushed to Q4 2026. The stock fell 35%.This 22-page report tells you whether that delay is a buying opportunity or a warning sign.What is inside:— The Neutron tank failure — honest assessment of whether it is a manufacturing defect or a design problem, and what it means for the Q4 2026 timeline — Business transformation — how Rocket Lab went from launch provider to space prime contractor in three years — The $816M SDA satellite contract and what it means to be a first-time prime at this scale — HASTE explained — why the US hypersonic programme is worth $190M and why Rocket Lab has no competitors in this market — Full financials FY2021-FY2025 — the gross margin expansion from -34% to +38% told quarter by quarter — Honest valuation math — why $65 is priced for Neutron success and what the stock is worth without it — Bear $28, Base $75, Bull $150 — every assumption shown — 6-signal decision dashboard for quarterly monitoring — 14-item risk register including the SpaceX competition risk honestly assessed — Peter Beck cut his own salary after a record year — what that signalsEvery number sourced to Rocket Lab SEC filings and investors.rocketlabcorp.com. Not financial advice.
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