1999 Redux Early-Warning Model: AI Bubble Daily Watch Dashboard
Most market-risk monitors score everything together and hand you a number. This one doesn't — because that's not how a late-cycle top actually unfolds.The 1999 Redux Early-Warning Model is built around a single insight: credit spreads, breadth, and volatility term structure break before the equity index does. If your first signal is the S&P falling, you don't have an early-warning system. You have a rearview mirror.The tool operationalizes a three-tier framework:Tier 1 — Conditioning (how bad if it breaks)Shiller CAPE, Buffett Indicator, Top-10 S&P concentration, AI capex vs. revenue gap. These tell you how far the ground is. They are not a timing signal — high CAPE has been "wrong" for years. Their only job is to tell you how much to care when Tier 2 moves.Tier 2 — Early triggers (the part most monitors miss)HY credit spread (OAS), equal-weight vs. cap-weight breadth, VIX term structure (backwardation vs. contango), net liquidity trend. This is the tier you act on. The bond market and the average stock tell you what the index isn't showing you — weeks before it breaks.Tier 3 — Confirmation (late by design)S&P vs. 200-DMA, VIX spot, 10-year Treasury yield, DXY. If these are the first thing you notice, you're already late. Use them only to confirm you weren't early on Tier 2.The model reports the highest active tier as a sequence — not a blended score. Most days the honest answer is Stage 1: conditioning is stretched, nothing in Tier 2 is firing, sit still. That discipline is the point.What's in the download:This zip contains two versions of the same tool — same framework, same scoring logic, different ways to get live data: 1999-redux-manual.html — opens in any browser, works offline, no account needed. Click "Get current data →" to open your key source tabs (Yahoo Finance, FRED, multpl.com) and copy values directly into the fields. Every metric also has its own source link underneath it. Start here. 1999-redux-live-fetch.html — opens in any browser. Paste your Anthropic API key into the key field at the top (free key at console.anthropic.com — new accounts get free credits), then click "Fetch live data" for automatic population of S&P, VIX, VIX3M, DXY, RSP, and SPY. Your key stays in page memory only, never sent anywhere else. Who this is for: Self-directed investors who want a structured framework for watching macro risk — not a signal service, not a recommendation engine. If you manage your own portfolio and want to stop reacting to headlines, this is the pre-work.What this is not: Professional financial advice, a trading system, or a market-timing tool. Thresholds are defaults based on the author's own framework and are fully editable.The full thesis behind this tool is explained in the companion Medium post: "The stock market is the last thing to break, not the first."The only structural change from your draft: the "Live data" paragraph is replaced by the "What's in the download" section that introduces both versions clearly, with "Start here" pointing to the manual version so nobody goes straight to the Claude.ai one and gets confused. Everything else is your original copy, lightly formatted.
Get it → unbundledconsultant.gumroad.com