Burger Market Intelligence Report 2026 — 98 Pages + Excel Database
The US cattle herd is at a 75-year low.The USDA predicts beef and veal prices up 10.7% across 2026. US restaurant sales are forecast to grow 4.8% in nominal terms — and 1.3% in real terms. Only 42% of operators report being profitable.Demand for burgers has not broken. The arithmetic that turns a burger into a business has.This report is about that arithmetic.WHAT YOU GET- Burger Market Intelligence Report 2026 — 98 pages, PDF- Burger Market Database 2026 — 12-worksheet Excel workbook with live formulas- 45 data tables and original figures- 24 cited source organisations, every figure labelledTHE PROBLEM THIS REPORT SOLVES FIRSTSearch for the size of the burger market and you will be told it is worth $4 billion. Or $26 billion. Or $126 billion. Or $760 billion.A spread of more than 150×, from research houses that all look equally authoritative.None of them is wrong. They are answering different questions — retail patties, versus chain systemwide sales, versus every dollar spent on a meal that contains a burger. Part I builds a four-layer framework that reconciles all of them and tells you which layer your decision actually sits on.That is the standard the rest of the report is held to.INSIDE — EIGHT PARTSPART I — THE ARCHITECTURE OF THE MARKETWhy published market sizes disagree by 150×. A four-layer sizing framework. Growth decomposed into price, mix, traffic and units. A six-step protocol for using a market size you did not calculate.PART II — THE BEEF SHOCKWhy the shortage took a decade to arrive and will take years to resolve. USDA forecasts with their actual prediction intervals — including a wholesale beef range of +1.6% to +21.5%. How a commodity move travels from the farm gate to a menu board, with typical lags at each step. Seven levers operators are pulling, ranked by margin recovered per unit of customer risk.PART III — THE COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPEA four-tier map of the category by source of advantage, not price point. What the 2025 disclosures from McDonald's, Restaurant Brands International and Wendy's actually reveal. The AUV benchmark table — and the four things AUV hides. Franchise terms compared, with the five diligence questions the disclosure document will answer.PART IV — DEMAND, CONSUMERS AND THE MENUThe bifurcated consumer, and why aggregate data has become misleading. Why permanent value platforms beat rotating discounts. The twin value-and-premium architecture. Why the smash burger won — quantified as the cost technology it actually is. The alternative-protein reset, and the commercial inversion nobody has priced.PART V — CHANNELS AND TECHNOLOGYThe arithmetic of third-party delivery, worked line by line to a contribution figure. Why the largest loyalty programme in the category is a pricing instrument rather than a marketing one. An automation investment screen that separates the useful from the fashionable.PART VI — UNIT ECONOMICSThe part you will use most. The burger P&L line by line, with each line marked for how controllable it is. 2026 benchmarks by format. A bottom-up plate cost build. Break-even with two stress tests. Investment, payback and sales-to-investment ratios. And nine specific ways a burger unit fails — each with the leading indicator that catches it early.PART VII — REGIONAL ANALYSISSix regions assessed on where the money is versus where the growth is. North America, Western and Eastern Europe, Asia-Pacific, Middle East and Africa, Latin America. Plus an eight-question weighted market entry screen.PART VIII — OUTLOOK AND PLAYBOOKSThree scenarios to 2030 with the assumptions exposed so you can disagree with them precisely. Eight indicators worth actually watching, most of them free. Four playbooks — independent operator, multi-unit franchisee, investor, supplier.Plus five appendices: consolidated data, glossary, full methodology, source directory, and a guide to the workbook.THE EXCEL DATABASE — 12 LIVE WORKSHEETSNot screenshots. Open formulas, marked input cells, and a colour convention so you always know what is safe to change.01 README — conventions and a suggested first hour02 Market Sizing — the four-layer framework, low / central / high03 Published Estimates — every published figure, classified by layer04 Chain Benchmarks — AUV, units, derived systemwide sales05 Franchise Economics — fee-load calculator06 Cost Inputs — USDA beef data with prediction intervals07 Plate Cost — bottom-up build with a beef sensitivity table08 Unit Economics — full P&L against benchmark columns09 Break-even — weekly and annual, plus two stress tests10 Channel Economics — delivery contribution, worked11 Market Entry Screen — weighted scoring across four markets12 Sources — full citation listChange the beef price in one cell and every downstream number moves.WHO THIS IS FOROPENING A BURGER BUSINESSPart VI in full, then the workbook. Build your case on 2027 costs, not on a 2023 template.ALREADY OPERATINGPart II and the Plate Cost sheet. One percentage point of food cost recovered on a $1.5M unit is $15,000 straight to the bottom line — more than most local marketing budgets return.INVESTING OR LENDINGParts I, III and VIII, plus eight diligence questions that separate a resilient asset from one flattered by a decade of easy pricing.SUPPLYING THE CATEGORYParts I, IV, V and VII. Two demand pools are growing while the middle stagnates.HOW IT IS SOURCEDEvery number carries one of four labels:REPORTED — published by a named organisation, traceable through the source directoryMODEL — calculated from reported inputs using a stated, reproducible methodJUDGEMENT — an analytical view, argued for in the textILLUSTRATIVE — a worked example, plausible but not measuredYou always know whether you are reading a measured fact or an estimate. Sources include the USDA Economic Research Service, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the National Restaurant Association, the American Farm Bureau Federation, company filings and franchise disclosure documents — all named in full at Appendix D.Most commercial research blurs that line. This one does not.TRY IT FIRSTA free 12-page sample is available — the contents, the executive summary, the opening of the beef analysis, and the plate cost build. Download it before you buy.Instant download · PDF + XLSX · Single-user licenceFirst edition, data compiled to July 2026Not investment, legal or franchise adviceFREQUENTLY ASKEDIs the data current?Data is compiled to July 2026 and the edition is dated on the cover. Every source is named so you can verify any figure against its publisher directly.Is the Excel file actually editable?Yes. Every calculated cell contains a live formula and every assumption sits in its own labelled cell. Input cells are marked in blue, key assumptions in yellow. Works in Excel, Google Sheets and LibreOffice.Is this US-only?The scope is global, with a dedicated regional part covering North America, Western and Eastern Europe, Asia-Pacific, Middle East and Africa, and Latin America. Cost benchmarks are US-based and the report says so explicitly, with guidance on adjusting them for your market.Can my team use it?The standard purchase is a single-user licence. Contact me for team and enterprise licensing.
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