Floating Wind: The Bankability Test
Floating Wind: The Bankability TestWhy Floating Wind Is Not Yet Bankable in Japan — and What Must AlignDeepWind Premium Report #4 · July 2026Floating is where Japan's 2040 target is delivered or missed — and the least bankable place on the map today. This report measures how far floating is from financeable and locates the binding constraint. The conclusion runs against the common assumption: the constraint is not the platform. It is a supply chain that has to unlock in sync.What you'll take away The bankability gap, quantified. Japan's first commercial floating project models at an LCOE of ~45 JPY/kWh and a negative IRR where fixed-bottom is solidly positive — a structural gap, not a low-price artifact. The cause, named. The same floating technology costs ~2× when the supply chain is built from a low base. The "Japan premium" is concentrated in the platform supply chain (~41% of CAPEX vs ~22% optimized), not the turbine. The synchronized bottleneck, node by node. Installation vessels, ports & marshalling, mooring & anchor manufacturing, and dynamic cables / deep-water grid — each sized against Japan's own official planning (MLIT, METI, OCCTO) and international benchmarks (NREL, BVG Associates, Carbon Trust, GWEC). What actually moves bankability. A full one-at-a-time sensitivity (tornado) ranking every lever — showing why the vessel line alone is the weakest, the supply-chain cost level the strongest. Under what conditions floating scales. The bankability ladder — the exact price that clears the project-finance DSCR bar today — and the four conditions that bring it down to a sustainable level. Implications by stakeholder — developers, EPCs, investors & lenders, insurers, vessel & port players, policymakers. What's included The full report — 28 pages (PDF). DeepWind Simulator Professional (β) access through December 31, 2026 — reproduce the Section 7 sensitivity and the Section 9 bankability ladder on your own assumptions. (Subscriptions open January 2027.) Who it's forDevelopers / IPPs, EPCs and suppliers, investors and lenders, insurers, vessel and port operators, and policymakers active in Japan's offshore wind build-out.Launch price through July 31, 2026.Prefer the short version? The 12-page Brief covers the problem and the diagnosis (report only). The Analysis adds the supply-chain deep dive, the full sensitivity, the bankability ladder, and the Simulator.All financial figures (LCOE, IRR, DSCR, CAPEX) are estimates from the DeepWind Viability Simulator using public data and stated assumptions — modelled indications for analysis, not project-specific forecasts or audited valuations. Evidence-based, politically neutral, no bid recommendations.
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